Predicting the NFL Draft and the Stock Market – This Time is Different!

Every spring, two events grip the nation with equal parts excitement and delusion: the NFL Draft and... earnings season. Yes, it’s that magical time when armchair general managers and wannabe Wall Street wolves alike flex their prediction muscles with all the swagger of Nostradamus—if he had been wrong 98% of the time and still got booked on CNBC.

On one side, you have Mel Kiper Jr. confidently declaring that a quarterback from an unaccredited online university is “the most pro-ready prospect since Andrew Luck.” On the other, you have a financial analyst pointing to a chart that looks like abstract art and whispering, “This candlestick formation is bullish,” as if that means something.

Let’s examine the key similarities between these two sacred institutions of speculative nonsense.

1. Everyone’s an Expert Until Reality Hits

NFL draft season turns every NFL “influencer” (and sports betting shill) into a scouting guru who’s “watched the tape” (i.e., YouTube highlights with dubstep music). The average draft analyst will mock draft the same player to four different teams depending on which way the wind blows on Reddit.

Meanwhile, the stock market brings out an analogous crowd but with a flair for saying things like “Fed hawkishness” and “geopolitical headwinds,” which is code for I have no idea what’s going on.  

2. Past Performance Is No Indicator of Future Success, But Let’s Ignore That

That disclaimer is written in fine print on every financial prospectus—and should be tattooed on the forehead of every GM who thinks drafting a wide receiver in the first round is a good idea because “we need weapons.”

Meanwhile, just because a tech stock quadrupled last quarter doesn’t mean it won’t trip over its own cloud infrastructure and fall into penny stock oblivion. And just because a cornerback ran a 4.27 40-yard dash doesn’t mean he can cover a slant route without spontaneously combusting.

3. Draft Grades & Earnings Calls: Equal Parts Theater and Guesswork

Within 24 hours of the NFL Draft, every major outlet will have grades for each team—based on nothing but vibes and a lingering fear of looking like they don’t “get it.” One team’s draft is praised as “transformative” even though no one will know if the left guard they took in Round 2 can play against actual adults.  According to The Huddle Report, there were 172(!) mock drafts issued by established websites, publications, and media outlets in 2024, and even the top-rated analyst only correctly picked 15 of the first 32 picks. 

On the Wall Street side, we get earnings calls full of phrases like “adjusted EBITDA” and “strong forward-looking guidance,” which are basically the financial equivalent of “we love this guy’s intangibles.”

4. Gut Feelings in Expensive Suits

Whether it’s a hedge fund manager or a football GM, the big decisions still come down to gut feeling. “We just felt like he was a culture fit” is eerily like “We believe in the long-term vision of this company despite its inability to turn a profit since 2013.”

It’s all just people in suits playing roulette with slightly fancier chips.

5. Occasionally, Someone Gets It Right—and Becomes a Legend

Once in a blue moon, someone calls it: a late-round QB turns into a GOAT, or someone correctly times the bottom of the market. These people are forever immortalized, quoted, and invited onto panels where they proceed to get everything wrong for the next decade. But no matter. Once you hit a 99-yard Hail Mary, no one cares how many bubble screens you fumbled.

Final Thought: Embrace the Chaos – But Not the Conclusion

In the end, both the NFL Draft and the stock market are beautiful disasters—chaotic systems pretending to be logical, particularly these days. So go ahead, fire up your mock draft. Buy that suspiciously cheap biotech stock. Just don’t bet a ton on either unless you want to end up yelling at your television in April and your brokerage app in May.

After all, making bold predictions is part of the fun—as long as no one brings them up later.